JOBS, JOBS & JOBS – Weekly Market Update

On Friday night the U.S showed us that they could be closer to turning back to positive growth again than most thought with their jobs figures strengthening to almost a positive reading, only 11,000 jobs lost last month and  a steady halt to the Unemployment rate slide was all welcoming news…

When we compare the basics on the U.S economy and their jobs market it has me thinking they are now where we ( Australia’s jobs market), were back in May 2009.     “SO LETS SEE IF THEY CAN NOW CREATE JOBS”… 

Meanwhile below is a nice little chart on Aussie consumer confidence courtesy of Westpac, we seem to look very top heavy and very optimistic right now and again another reason for my concern, when I stated earlier this year back in February that Oil was going to rally again along with the rest of the market it was the such negative consumer readings that had me so optimistic and now it is the exact opposite…

“WE ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF OUR LAST 10 YEAR HIGHS IN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE WHILE OUR PORTFOLIO INSURANCE IS STILL AT ITS CHEAPEST..” 

A NEW CONSUMER CONFIDENCE READING IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK…. 

FUNDAMENTAL WEEK AHEAD… 

All eyes and ears will be on Australia this week with a big week ahead… 

Aussie Consumer confidence numbers are set to be released  Wednesday morning while Business confidence figures are due out Tuesday lunch time..

Wednesday also is a critical day for bank loans data, Aussie trade balance and investment lending while across the pacific New Zealand has their Interest rates decision.. 

Thursday it will be Australia’s turn for jobs data with Aussie unemployment figures, can we create new jobs ? we will find out this week for sure…

Our Aussie weekly sector performances are below, you can see the seesaw battle that continues between Financials and Materials, care needs to be taken when both rise strongly in one week as one of them generally is lying, clearly if today has anything to go by we can see it was the Materials sector showing us deception as it takes a decent hit today…

So far today we have 90% of financials all up 0.5 to 2% as I type and most of our major materials stocks down 1.0 to 5%, like I said earlier use this dip to get in or accumulate more quality defensive stocks, the short term 2 monthly trend has not changed…

Our Aussie share market index seems to have found a home hovering between 4,500 to 4,800 points, this consolidation pattern is a big one and we need to be ready to trade the break out whatever way it goes…. 

Our Global Gold market along with our Aussie consumer sentiment index tells us that the next large move could be down and  remaining cautious makes a lot of sense to me right now.. 

The weekly X.J.O chart below tells us something different though, solid support last week was shown off the 20 week moving average and a neat weekly entry signal was given once again, one thing I know from experience is the change of trend will occur after a false buy or sell signal has been given. 

Look at the chart below and you can see that as soon as we made a new larger weekly high or new weekly low a reversal has occurred, with history as a guide we could still see 5,000 points for December before any major sell off, would be very wise to lock in some profits there if yet to do so…. 

Enjoy your week folks..

Expecting success

James McMurtrie

Meridian Financial Pty Ltd

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